Undocumented Migration and Electoral Support: Evidence From Spain

Unwrapping the political discourse against immigration is key to understanding rise of populism in Western democracies. A growing body literature has found ample evidence that pays a premium conservative forces propose tighter policies. Using data on presidential elections Spain from 2008 2019, we shed light this debate by highlighting role played irregular migration. Some studies show undocumented immigrants consume less and earn lower wages than documented with similar observable characteristics. In addition, since they are relegated working informal sector, cannot contribute welfare state direct taxes. This suggests migration might intensify support for right-wing politics effect independent one caused presence migrants. We apply an instrumental variable strategy deal non-random distribution migrants across districts. Our findings indicate increasing increases right, while rises left. When consider irruption far-right into electoral competitions, find redistributes votes left as been observed other countries.